Identifies bank reserves injected into the financial system via fiscal-monetary identity:

ΔNet Liquidity = ΔFed Assets − ΔTGA − ΔON RRP

Treasury General Account (TGA) drawdowns shift cash directly from Treasury deposits to commercial bank reserves, offset by ~15% ON RRP cash drag.

Reflects order-book illiquidity & inelastic supply with non-linear liquidity amplification:

BTC = $78,500 × exp(5.94 × lp)

Where lp = ΔNet Liq / Baseline Net Liq. Calibrates Base Case (+7.8%) to ~$125K and Max Liquidity (+19.5%) to ~$250K.

Nelson-Siegel model with compression weighted across the 2Y–30Y tenor space, deepening monotonically toward the long end (0.35 weight at 10Y, 0.45 at 30Y):

ΔYield(t) = −(TGA/950)·150bps·w(t)·abs − (Pace/25)·(TGA/950)·150bps·w(t)·0.55 + QT

The TGA term anchors a 150bps full-drawdown compression budget; the buyback pace term scales 55% of that budget with drawdown-funded velocity. Short end (≤1Y) stays pinned to policy rates.

Short-end (≤1Y) is pinned to policy rates, focusing buyback compression on long-end term premiums.

Primary dealers absorb ~25% of buyback velocity; 75% is net duration removal. Calibrated against Treasury's ≥$4B/op floor.

SPX β = +0.42 (Base Case +3.3%) | DXY β = -0.08 (Base Case -0.6%)